Confidence: 96.2%
Acute stress with extreme volatility and liquidity breakdown. Correlations spike, violent drawdowns, and panic selling. Typically characterized by VIX above 35, sharp equity drops, and flight to cash/treasuries. The regime is determined by a Hidden Markov Model trained on 5 years of rolling data across equity returns (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA), volatility (VIX), dollar strength (DXY), yield curve spreads (2s10s), inflation expectations (5Y breakeven), and jobless claims. The confidence score of 96.2% represents the model's posterior probability of being in the current state.
SPY
738.93
+0.75
+0.10%
IWM
291.17
-0.92
-0.31%
QQQ
684.23
-7.73
-1.12%
DIA
518.76
+2.50
+0.48%
VIX
18.58
-0.12
-0.64%
DXY
101.46
+0.10
+0.09%
CRUDE_OIL
90.47
-1.70
-1.84%
GOLD
4055.70
+8.90
+0.22%
SILVER
58.49
+0.69
+1.19%
NATURAL_GAS
2.91
-0.01
-0.21%
COPPER
6.34
+0.00
+0.02%
WHEAT
679.00
-19.00
-2.72%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
+0 bps
5Y Inflation Exp.
2.52%
-2 bps
Initial Claims
215,000
+6,000
2s10s Spread
0.41%
-1 bps